飛機租賃行業 有無護城河? #2588 #1848

關於飛機租賃 leasing moat, 我開頭都好傻豬以為買左隻飛機返嚟就放租, 啲錢就會自動游埋嚟.

睇返轉頭就覺得自己做左on9仔, 井底之蛙

今日會試下搵幾間公司出嚟睇下各自點講

真係普通easy business?

(依篇亦係鋪路講點解誠哥要賣飛機)

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AerCap; 2019Q4

AerCap 標榜自己嘅飛機係新技術飛機, 新技術更符合環保& ESG 需要, 航空公司亦有更佳嘅能源效益

下面橙色, 寫到新技術飛機機齡只有2.3年, 可能機齡對於Leasing 公司係一個關鍵因素

AerCap; 2019Q4

AerCap 除左飛機放租, 亦有買入新機, 賣出舊機

賣出嘅機唔可以太舊, 10年15年機齡算差唔多

所以向前推一步就係買入時最好係全新, 咁先可以賣出時唔會太舊(廢話😆)

AerCap; 2019Q4

標題大大隻寫左重點, 機隊要分散

imply 租客群亦會分散, 雙走廊大機& 單走廊細機需求層面已經唔一樣

前者主要做跨國航線(喺Covid下死左), 後者做洲內線(香港快運東南亞/日韓) & 做國內航線 (喺covid下相對影響較細)

另外, 留意個數字, AerCap 有飛機約1300隻

2021Q3, AerCap 同GE 合拼後, 有2393架, 未來會再加436架, Total 2,829架

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AirLease; 2021 SEP 20

AL公司喺依版PPT寫到, 有質素嘅租賃公司會有更抵嘅債務成本

航空公司普遍資金成本: 4.4%, 而環球性嘅租賃公司, 包指中銀租賃, 借貸成本係1.9%

可見, 借貸成本係依個行業一個致勝關鍵. 有能力管理自身Balance Sheet, 有能力喺資本/債務市場爭取到低息資金就係成功.

AirLease; 2019 OCT 18

依一版左右分別係世界兩大飛機制造公司嘅積壓訂單數量 & 客源分佈

左邊波音, 尚有5,581架飛機, 當中21%係來自租賃公司嘅訂單 (~1,172)

右邊空中巴士, 7,102架飛機, 當中20%來自租賃公司嘅訂單 (~1,420)

(註, AerCap 喺2021Q3 PPT中提到, 佢地有436架飛機訂緊未到, 當中301架係AirBus, 135架係Boeing. 可見AerCap 喺Airbus都有相當影響力, 301架除1,420架=21%)

AirLease; 2021Q3

依張圖有幾個重要資訊:

1. 飛機25歲就要退休 (AerCap喺機齡15時賣走)

2. 航空公司傾向選擇年輕/燃油效益/可靠/低維修成本/環保考慮 (咪啫係要新飛機囉)

3. 航空公司需要租賃公司: 可以減少資本支出, 更好控制現金流

4. 航空公司需要租賃公司: 飛機選擇上更有彈性

5. 航空公司需要租賃公司: 因為係租飛機, 唔洗自己勞心去賣飛機

AirLease; 2021Q3

1. 機齡20年要退休

2. 全世界有11.7% 嘅飛機開始要退休

3. 為市場帶來機遇, 包括飛機制造/資本提供者/租賃公司

AirLease; 2021Q3

AirLease 點樣去管理佢地嘅資產(飛機), imply 緊喺飛機租賃市場有咩成功因素

1. 專注於年輕飛機, 持有該飛機頭三分一嘅時間 (如果第20年要退休, 大約第7年就會開始考慮賣出)

2. 平衡兩邊嘅飛機製造商

3. 引擎製造商都會分散唔同公司

3. 分散單走道(細機) & 雙走道(大機), 因為需求&地域分散

4. 要求更有彈性嘅買機協議 (前設, 本身要有大嘅議價能力)

5. 要求落訂飛機 (之前講左, 市場對新型飛機有強烈需求)

AirLease; 2021Q3

1. AirLease 把炮到有份對飛機&引擎設計提出意見 (可見本身喺市場份量)

2. AirLease 可以有更好訂立合約條款, 更抵價錢, 更高質嘅飛機 (慳到購機成本, 出租嘅Yield% 相應提高)

AirLease; 2021Q3

左下角: 供應商(波音&空巴)嘅分散

右上角: 客戶分散

右下角: 分散單走道(細機) & 雙走道(大機), 因為需求&地域分散

AirLease; 2021Q3

1. AirLease 手上有200間航空公司 (租客分散)

2. 70個國家, (地域分散), 假設地震/水災/火山影響到某個地區嘅航班, 都唔會對AirLease 有收入上嘅重大影響

3. 租客分散; 地區分散; 機型分散. 分散再分散, 減低集中度風險

AirLease; 2021Q3

AirLease 點解要出依版? 始終飛機租賃都係做緊借錢生意, 最驚客仔走數

有政府喺背support 就驚少幾分.

AirLease; 2021Q3

AirLease 標榜自己投資於高流動性飛機「ALC invests in the most liquid aircraft types」

咩係高流動性飛機? 啫係容易賣嘅飛機, =市場高需求嘅飛機

年輕/燃油效益/可靠/低維修成本/環保考慮 (咪啫係要新飛機囉)

AirLease; 2021Q3

1. AirLease 認為佢地嘅飛機訂單為公司帶來價值 (提早拎到新機, 更易租出好價錢)

2. 提早18-36個月就落訂新機 (早買早亨受, 遲買唔止貴幾舊)

AirLease; 2021Q3

現時市場上較新型嘅飛機, 改善左幾多燃油效益

(有依啲飛機喺手嘅租賃公司, 會更受歡迎, 租得更好)

AirLease; 2021Q3

結個尾先, AirLease嘅尾, 唔係依篇Blog 嘅尾

1. Scale, 夠大隻, USD$500億 (imply 緊大者恒大? 領展咁?)

2. 專注於新飛機, 市場有強引需求, 更易賣出

3. 資金隨時準備 (如: 喺COVID 出手幫航空公司, 售後租回)

4. 維持好嘅信貸評級 (更易借到低息資金)

5. 分散分散再分散

6. 大部份客戶有政府支持(走數風險相對較低)

7. 30年經驗 (優勢)

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未完, 我又點會咁求其, 同大家睇埋 AirLease 嘅10K 年報, 節錄部份段落:

Aircraft Acquisition Strategy
We seek to acquire the most highly in demand and widely distributed, modern technology, fuel efficient narrow body and widebody commercial jet aircraft. Our strategy is to order new aircraft directly from the manufacturers. When placing new aircraft orders with the manufacturers, we strategically target the replacement of aging aircraft with modern technology aircraft. Additionally, we look to supplement our order pipeline with opportunistic purchases of aircraft in the secondary market and participate in sale-leaseback transactions with airlines.

新飛機, 慳油飛機, 更易賣出 & 租出. 直接向飛機製造商(可以有更平價錢)(都要你訂得多先得)

Prior to ordering aircraft, we evaluate the market for specific types of aircraft. We consider the overall demand for the aircraft type in the marketplace based on our deep knowledge of the aviation industry and our customer relationships. It is important to assess the airplane’s economic viability, the operating performance characteristics, engine variant options, intended utilization by our customers, and which aircraft types it will replace or compete with in the global market. Additionally, we study the effects of global airline passenger traffic growth in order to determine the likely demand for our new aircraft upon delivery.

對市場嘅了解&經驗; 相對難估錯市場嘅需求=> 更易租出/賣出

For new aircraft deliveries, we source many components separately, which include seats, safety equipment, avionics, galleys, cabin finishes, engines, and other equipment. Oftentimes, we are able to achieve lower pricing through direct bulk purchase contracts with the component manufacturers than would be achievable if we relied on the airframe manufacturers to source the components for the aircraft themselves.
Airframe manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus install this buyer furnished equipment in our aircraft during the final assembly process at their facilities. With this purchasing strategy, we are able to both meet specific customer configuration requirements and lower our total acquisition cost of the aircraft.

量大折扣, 飛機整體價格更平(收租回報% 更好)

Aircraft Leasing Strategy
We work to mitigate the risks associated with owning and leasing aircraft and cyclical variations in the airline industry through careful management of our fleet, including managing customer concentrations by geography and region, entering into long-term leases, staggering lease maturities, balancing aircraft type exposures, and maintaining a young fleet age. We believe that diversification of our operating lease portfolio reduces the risks associated with individual customer defaults and the impact of adverse geopolitical and regional economic events. In order to maximize residual values and minimize the risk of obsolescence, our strategy is generally to own an aircraft for approximately the first third of its expected 25 year useful life.

X年輕&新技術飛機; 分散客源; 機齡25年嘅頭三分一(8年)

Aircraft Sales & Trading Strategy
Our strategy is to maintain a portfolio of young aircraft with a widely diversified customer base. In order to achieve this profile, we primarily order new planes directly from the manufacturers, place them on long- term leases, and sell the aircraft when they near the end of the first third of their expected 25-year economic useful lives. We typically sell aircraft that are currently operated by an airline with multiple years of lease term remaining on the contract, in order to achieve the maximum disposition value of the aircraft. Buyers of the aircraft may include other leasing companies, financial institutions, airlines and other investors. We also, from time to time, buy and sell aircraft on an opportunistic basis for trading profits. Additionally, as discussed below, we may provide management services to buyers of our aircraft assets for a fee.

機齡25年嘅頭三分一(8年)=> 更易賣出
同時會連埋租客咁賣=> 更易賣出

Competition
The leasing, remarketing, and sale of aircraft is highly competitive. While we are one of the largest aircraft lessors operating on a global scale, the aircraft leasing industry is diversified with a large number of competitors. We face competition from aircraft manufacturers, banks, financial institutions, other leasing companies, aircraft brokers and airlines. Some of our competitors may have greater operating and financial resources and access to lower capital costs than we have. Competition for leasing transactions is based on a number of factors, including delivery dates, lease rates, lease terms, other lease provisions, aircraft condition, and the availability in the marketplace of the types of aircraft required to meet the needs of airline customers. Competition in the purchase and sale of used aircraft is based principally on the availability of used aircraft, price, the terms of the lease to which an aircraft is subject, and the creditworthiness of the lessee, if any.

租賃市場競爭邀烈, 低嘅資金成本 & 更易租出/賣出嘅飛機 & 良好嘅租客
***三大成功要素***

AirLease 嘅睇到依到先, 因為依篇野未完嫁😆😆 嘔心瀝血

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繼續, 睇埋 2588中銀租賃點講 (2019年報)

我們的經營收入主要來自兩個來源：飛機租賃和飛機出售，出售通常附帶租約。

我們通過維持低齡、高需求的飛機組合及由最受歡迎的單走道飛機組成的訂單簿，以及注重客戶選擇以降低此類風險。我們亦通過建立具有多元化客戶基礎的全球業務來減輕該等風險，使我們能夠於必要時將資產重新配置至需求更大的地區。

強大的投資級企業信用評級(標準普爾全球評級和惠譽評級均為A-)，以及可獲得的多元化債務融資來源，令我們受益匪淺。

好熟悉嘅字眼, 同AerCap & AirLease 都差唔多

(咁我就留返最後先一次過總結再Re-cap)

2588 手上有528隻飛機, 機齡3.1年; 租緊比41個國家; 93間航空公司

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睇完年報? 未完😅 睇下專業人士點講

https://www.abrdn.com/zh-tw/taiwan/insights-thinking-aloud/article-page/aircraft-leasing-the-mechanics-of-renting-planes

租賃公司傾向於直接向波音和空中巴士等製造商採購飛機；若干大型的出租人乃是民航機製造商的重要客戶，具備良好議價能力，得以爭取優渥折扣。

這種投資案能否成功，取決於兩項關鍵：承租人的信用水準維持不墜，以及飛機的二手價值保持一定水準。

多數的倫敦證交所上市基金投資於 A380，這是一種不甚普及的雙走道客機，近期才進入次級市場。較普遍的飛機的報酬率通常較低 (或者需要更大幅舉債才能達到相同的報酬率)，因為其二手價值所涉變數較少。

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https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4609192

全球最大航空租賃業者 AerCap 目前管理約 1,050 架飛機，並已向飛機製造商訂購近 300 架，而第二名的 GECAS 管理規模約 900 架。投行 Jefferies 表示，兩家合併後的客機機隊約佔全球的 7%，於空巴和波音的訂單約佔 4%。

這意味著未來航空公司有望在租賃飛機上獲得更好的報價，因為飛機租賃公司規模擴大，將有能力向空巴和波音 (BA-US) 爭取更低的價格。

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另外, 喺2021年11月

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/air-lessor-smbc-aviation-buy-rival-goshawk-media-reports-2021-11-19/

市場傳聞: SMBC三井住友銀行飛機租賃公司有意收購 0659新創建旗下飛機租賃公司Goshawk.

SMBC手上有689架飛機, 而Goshawk有222架飛機

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https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E9%95%B7%E5%AF%A6%E9%80%80%E5%87%BA%E9%A3%9B%E6%A9%9F%E7%A7%9F%E8%B3%83-%E5%A5%97%E7%8F%BE332%E5%84%84-192800430.html

分析員認為，今次交易對長實而言是好事，飛機租賃行業持續受疫情影響，前景未明朗，而長實管理層於分析員會議上指出，疫情之下現時飛機租賃公司要持有逾500架飛機才有生存空間，進行併購時才有議價能力；長實所持機隊規模較小，經評估後決定退出業務，而買家Maverick Aviation本身擁有300多架飛機，向長實收購後將增加至近500架飛機，屬於雙贏。

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再貼落去, 就真係無人睇😂 係時候round up 下