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是咁的,不時都會有網友PM 我問想學睇年報, 想學投資 問我有無咩書推介 必睇 今日推介幾本我覺得幾啱新手睇嘅 會計 入門書; 中階書; 估值書 當然亦會有一啲講投資「大道理」嘅書 書睇過好多, 但真係覺得有用, 有insight 嘅兩隻手數晒 希望今次幫到大家慳返唔少時間去搵書 揀書

2022年5月26日 星期四

Nvidia NVDA 2023年度 第1季業績

Nvidia 啱啱出左第1季業績, 寫返幾個point 先

NVDA, 2023年度 第1季收入按年比增長46%, 

(我嘅DCF估值模型只係預增長27%)

收入增長主要受到 數據中心& Gaming 帶動
(大家有無印像我Google & MSFT 嘅YouTube)
(幾大科企巨頭未來幾年都會加大Cloud 相關投資 = Capex)
(Cloud 咪啫係 Nvda 嘅 data center業務)

三大科企喺過去兩季嘅業績會議講稿:
Google: FY2022 Q1
We continue to expect a meaningful increase in Capex in 2022 versus last year. For the balance of 2022, the increase will be particularly reflected in investments in Technical Infrastructure globally, with servers as the largest component.

Google: FY2021 Q4
Turning to CapEx, the results in the fourth quarter primarily reflect ongoing investment in our technical infrastructure, most notably in servers, to support ongoing growth in both Google Services and Google Cloud. We also increased the pace of investment in fit-outs and ground-up construction of office facilities.
In 2022, we expect a meaningful increase in CapEx. In Technical Infrastructure, servers will again be the largest driver of spend.

MSFT FY2022 Q2
Capital expenditures including finance leases were $6.8 billion, up 25% year-over-year, lower than expected, primarily due to quarterly spend volatility in the timing of our cloud infrastructure buildout. Cash paid for PP&E was $5.9 billion. 
Our capital investments, including both new data center regions and expansion in existing regions, continue to be based on significant customer demand and usage signals. 

AMZN FY2022 Q1
Yeah, let me -- let's talk a little bit about capital expenditures, and I'm going to do this with inclusion of equipment finance leases, which is the residual that we sometimes lease on our infrastructure assets. We're doing less of it now, but we still do some and have done it historically. So, when you look at those numbers and how they've grown over the last few years, I'll give you the proportions, which I'm not sure we've initially shown before. It's about 40% -- just under 40% of that capex is going into infrastructure, most of it feeding AWS.

But also, certainly, Amazon is a large customer of that as well as we build infrastructure for ourselves directly or through AWS. About just under 30% is fulfillment capacity, building warehouses -- warehouse only, not transportation. And then just under 25% is transportation capacity and building on our NACL network, principally globally. The remaining 5% or so is small things like offices and stores and other capital areas.

AMZN FY2021 Q4
Capital investments were $61 billion on the trailing 12-month period ended March 31. About 40% of that went to infrastructure, primarily supporting AWS but also supporting our sizable consumer business. About 30% is fulfillment capacity, primarily fulfillment center warehouses. A little less than 25% is for transportation.

So think of that as the middle and the last-mile capacity related to customer shipments. The remaining 5% or so is comprised of things like corporate space and physical stores. For full year 2022, we do expect infrastructure spend to grow year over year, in large part to support the rapid growth and innovation we're seeing within AWS. We expect infrastructure should represent about half of our total capital investments in 2022.
三大科企 Google Microsoft Amazon 都提到嚟緊會加大投資喺雲相關嘅建設
當中包括運算 & 伺服器

側面證明 NVDA 喺未來嘅發展都唔會差得去邊
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嚟緊仲有 Omniverse &. 自駕相關業務嘅增長
NVDA sell 緊個Omniverse 
其中一個例子係 百事可樂 用佢去改善供應鏈管理
*********************************************************************

過去依一季: 
Data center 收入增長 83%
主因仍然係"雲"嘅需求帶動, 特別係現時供應鏈問題, 唔少客戶提前落訂購買

Gaming 增長31%
毛利率繼續升, 上到65.5%

Operating income 下跌4%
(要留意係咪一次性事件)

搵到真兇, operating income 跌係因為 acquisition termination cost $1,353
(內文寫係因為 ARM 收購失敗)
如果加返依個 $1,353 落去
Net income 會由 $1,618 上返 $2,971
按年上升 55.38%

Operating Cash flow 金額都跌左,主因係 prepaid expense
(同上年差唔多原因, 早啲比定錢TSMC & 其他供應商,  霸定生產線)
Yes. So let me start here, and I'll see if Jensen wants to add more of that. Our purchase obligations, as well as our prepaid have two major things to keep in mind. One, for the first time ever, we are prepaying to make sure that we have that supply and those commitments long term.

And additionally, on our purchase obligations, many of them are for long lead time items that are a must for us to procure to make sure that we have the products coming to market.
A good percentage of our purchase commitments is for our Data Center business, which you can imagine, are much larger systems, much more complex systems and those things that we are procuring to make sure we can feed the demand both in the upcoming quarters and further. Areas in terms of where we are still a little bit supply constrained are networking. Our demand is quite strong.
*********************************************************************
喺 TSMC 台積電過去兩季嘅業績公告, 當中提到:
FY2021 Q4
Summary of Cash Flow:
The other operating sources were mainly attributable to the receipt of customers' commitment to retain capacity.

FY2022 Q1
Summary of Cash Flow:
The other operating sources were mainly attributable to the receipt from customers to retain capacity.
點解兩季講嘅野一樣?
因為真係咁
至少連續兩季, 台績電收定「誠意金」,
課金留位

*********************************************************************
Q2 outlook 就係出事原因
NVDA 預期Q2 收入會係 $8.1b (加減2%)
當中有大約$500 mil 收入減少係 因為俄羅斯 & 大陸嘅封城
Q2 FY23 $8,1XX (預期)(按年增長24%) (如果加返$500 mil 比佢, 就係增長32%)
Q2 FY22 $6,507 (按年增長68%)
Q2 FY21 $3,866

NVDA 公司嘅Q2 預期比市場預期大為下降, 亦係琴日股價喺盤後大跌嘅原因(之一)
*********************************************************************

公司喺第一季用左$2.1 b 派發股息&回購 , 現時NVDA 市值$425 b
另外,董事會 決定嚟緊會再額外回購$15b, 直至 2023年12月. 大約等於現時市值 嘅3.5%

*********************************************************************
整體嚟講
不論income 定係個 下季 outlook
都係一次性影響
差? 盤數表面上係差
但係咪永久性地轉差? (基本面轉變)
I don't think so


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6 則留言:

  1. 謝數簿,我的理解是data center / cloud 是main driver,因為AI 需求,企業搬上cloud 和加容量的步伐

    Q2 forecast = 8.1b, Analyst = 8.45b, 相差-4.2%,是很嚴重?還是我看錯?

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    回覆
    1. 8.1b , 本身係8.6b, NVDA提到: 當中有0.5b 受俄烏 & 中國封城影響
      我覺得依0.5b 唔係 NVDA 嘅錯

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    2. Revenue is expected to be $8.10 billion, plus or minus 2%. This includes an estimated reduction of approximately $500 million relating to Russia and the COVID lockdowns in China.

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    3. 這個我都看到,問題差過分析分析員預期,結果數字-4%,是為之大或細分別?

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    4. 依個應該唔重要?
      分析員無計到$500 mil 嘅影響
      如果真係要執着分析員嘅預期
      似係分析員估錯左, 估多左
      而唔係 NVDA 做得差

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    5. 同意,媒體這個指"遜預期"意義不大,除了可以eye catching

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